Jim Rickards’
September 10, 2026
One Seat Could Decide Everything
First, a warm welcome to the more than 1,000 new text Insiders joining us for the Midterm Countdown.
Between now and Election Day on Nov. 3, I’ll be in touch each week with my latest analysis of the races and developments that could decide control of Congress — and what the outcome could mean for markets and your money.
Welcome aboard. Now, let’s get started.
Sometimes, the smallest developments have the biggest political impact. That’s especially true in the case of the midterm elections, where control of the House and Senate may come down to razor-thin margins.
We’ve seen two such developments this week.
The first is a primary election in New Hampshire on September 8 for candidates for an open U.S. Senate seat. The winners in the primary were John Sununu for the Republican nomination and Chris Pappas for the Democratic nomination.
The Sununus are a political dynasty in New Hampshire. John Sununu is the son of former Gov. John H. Sununu and the brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu. John Sununu is also a former member of the House and a former U.S. senator from New Hampshire.
Chris Pappas is less well-known but is the current member of the House for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. I live in the 1st District, so Pappas is my congressman.
New Hampshire is a small state with only two House members and four electoral votes in presidential races. Why is this Sununu-Pappas contest such a big deal?
The reason is that the Senate seat being contested is currently held by Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat who is retiring. Right now, the Senate is controlled by Republicans with a 53–47 majority. Democrats need to flip a net four current Republican Senate seats in order to take control of the Senate, 51–49.
The Democrats are targeting Republican-held seats in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and North Carolina to accomplish this goal. But the math of flipping Republican seats only works if the Democrats can hold all of the seats they already have.
That’s where New Hampshire comes in.
If Sununu can win against Pappas, that would be a flip from Democrat — now Shaheen — to Republican and could destroy the Democrats’ plan to take control of the Senate.
This is a strong possibility. Sununu has pulled off the difficult trick of getting a Trump endorsement without personally being too Trumpy. That’s important in New Hampshire, which is a true purple state instead of solidly red or blue.
Keep an eye on New Hampshire. The race here will not get as much publicity as the bitter contests in Texas and Maine, but it could determine which party ends up controlling the Senate.
The second matter involves the new map for House seats in Missouri. The issue is complicated beyond belief because of the lawsuits surrounding it.
Basically, Republicans currently have a 6–2 advantage in Missouri’s eight House seats. The new map could give Republicans a 7–1 advantage. So, potentially, there is only one House seat at stake.
But control of the House may come down to just one or two votes after the midterm elections, so the new Missouri map could determine control of the House as a whole.
The new map was approved by the legislature and used in the primary elections. On September 3, the Missouri Supreme Court blocked the new map. On September 8, the U.S. Supreme Court, acting through Justice Brett Kavanaugh, declined to overrule the Missouri Supreme Court. Based on that decision, the old map would be used.
But a separate case was filed in the U.S. District Court in Missouri, and on September 8, the district court judge ordered the new map to be used. The Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals declined to block that order the same day.
That ruling is now being appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court by opponents of the new map, after the Supreme Court had already let the Missouri Supreme Court decision stand.
Got it?
No one knows how this case will turn out. It may even be decided by the time you read this. This is a furious legal battle in which you can be certain the lawyers are getting no sleep.
It only involves a difference of one seat in the House. But that’s just how close the midterm election results may be.
Finally, Trump shocked the media and rocked the political world last night by pledging to give $5,000 to every adult U.S. citizen if the Republican Party holds the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections.
He calls this the “Trump Dividend.”
Details were sketchy as of today, but the pledge was well-publicized and could play a role in increasing turnout by Republicans.
Democrats would be eligible for the Trump Dividend also, but because they despise or distrust everything Trump does, they may not believe in the pledge and may be less inclined to turn out because of it.
If nothing else, it keeps the Trump brand and the Republican message in the headlines and front of mind for voters.
Paying for votes is plainly illegal if you use personal funds or party funds. But this plan is different because the payments would be made through the federal government and would require congressional authorization. In effect, taxpayers would be paying themselves, but not in equal amounts.
Many Americans pay little or no federal income tax. About 70% of all federal individual income taxes are paid by the top 10% of taxpayers. In effect, a relatively small, high-income group would be handing money to a much larger group, with the U.S. Treasury as an intermediary.
That sounds like socialism, Trump-style, and it probably is. One would think the Democrats would support such a blatantly socialist plan. But they won’t. Trump derangement syndrome will prevent them from understanding how a plan like this would work in practice.
One thing we can be sure of is that this plan would be highly inflationary. Monetary policy does not affect inflation as much as most believe, but fiscal policy definitely does.
Investors would do well to increase their allocations to property, gold, silver and natural resources.
They might even use their $5,000 checks to do so.
All the best,
Jim Rickards
Editor, Strategic Intelligence